TechCast Webinar Series: SciCast on the Prediction Market, Cyber Security Markets and the Near and Far Future of Artificial Intelligence

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SciCast on the Prediction Market, Cyber Security Markets and the Near and Far Future of AI

This series of webinars will bring together the top organizations on forecasting, foresight and strategy to address the big issues of our time. By collectively pooling the knowledge of forward-looking leaders around the world, the webinar series aims to create a strategic global learning experience.

For the last 18 months, SciCast has been forecasting hundreds of mostly near-term science and technology questions, beating a uniform forecast by over 35% and its own informed survey by 15%. Preliminary results from a 4-month incentive study show 70% gains over uniform forecasts. Charles Tawdry will present some key results and demonstrate how SciCast works.

Dan Geer and Alex Hutton discuss their ideas for a prediction market to price cyber security risk. What events are most useful to forecast? How far in the future should we aim? What can be gained by using conditional or combinatorial markets like SciCast? We will also discuss a recent exercise forecasting the results of the White Hat security report.
The Webinar series is Produced by TechCast with co-hosts Limor Schafman, and Flynn Bucy.

The three most disruptive transitions in history have been the introduction of humans, farming, and industry. If another transition lies ahead, a good guess for its source is artificial intelligence (AI). And a good guess for the first feasible kind of AI is whole brain emulations, or “ems,” sometime in the next century. Robin Hanson attempts a broad synthesis of relevant academic consensus, in order to outline a baseline scenario set modestly far into a post-em-transition world.

Day: May 7, 2015

Time: 12pm-1pm ET

Location: Online Webinar

CLICK HERE for further Information and to Register for this FREE event.

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